Self-Driving Cars: RIP Driving Test?

The potential benefits of self-driving cars are profound; from dramatically reducing road deaths to the appeal for young drivers (think reduced insurance premiums) – but what does it mean for the longterm future of learning to drive?

If the director of Google’s self-drive car project, Chris Urmson, has anything to do with it, automated cars will have a massive impact on driver training – because he believes there won’t be a need for any. As Urmson revealed at the Technology, Entertainment and Design 2015 conference, his son is 11 and is supposed to be taking his driving test in ‘four and a half years… My team are committed to making sure that doesn’t happen”.

It’s a view of the future that is in part shared by Intelligent Instructor Magazine’s editor Paul Caddick – though not within such a dramatic timeline. He told Theory Test Pro that “the subject of autonomous cars does worry me slightly, and recently I’ve steered away from talking about it too much as people were getting rattled”.

In his opinion, Paul believes that the technology will seriously impact many industries and careers including driver training. He explains: “Autonomous vehicles are a reality coming down the road and will undoubtedly improve road safety by 90+%, reduce pollution, clear the streets of parking problems and make our living and working environment a lot more pleasant and healthier. And it’s not just ADIs who could struggle – there are many, many careers that will be affected including journalism.”

What Drivers Want It paints a difficult picture then for those of us who are dependent on the driver training sector – and have a genuine love of actual driving as well – but there are some who remain sceptical about the threat, at least in the short to medium term; Simon Cook of System Driving is an ADI who has blogged about the subject for audit, tax and advisory specialist KMPG: “The question is while the technology will be ultimately achievable, do people really want it?”, questions Simon. “That’s the gap for me. Plus it won’t happen in my lifetime or my children’s – my 18 year old son is adamant he wants to drive himself.”

Even if self-driving cars do become predominant, Simon doesn’t believe it will mean the end to the driving test either: “Instead, we will have different categories of licence, just like we did when automatics were introduced and a new category was created for them,” explains the ADI. “I believe the same thing will happen with autonomous vehicles.”

This view is echoed by a recent report from the EU thinkthank European Transport Safety Council that far from sounding the death knell for training and testing, instead stated that both drivers and their autonomous cars should be put through a driving test. The ETSC believes that such testing is essential “so that drivers can gain a working knowledge of when and how to use automation features and understand the basics, advantages and limits of the technology” and that self-driving cars “will [need to] pass a comprehensive equivalent to a ‘driving test’. This should take into account high risk scenarios for occupants and road users outside the vehicle.”

Silver Lining Perhaps then the future is not as grim for the training sector as some believe. The government could rightly insist that people still need to undertake theory and practical tests so there is human back-up in case the tech fails when out on the road. And then there’s the issue of us being, well, human – and it’s one that is critical on two key fronts.

First, many of us love driving and there are signs that the next generation are falling back in love with cars after millennials gave them the cold shoulder, chiefly for the sense of freedom associated with owning one. Crucial to that sense of freedom is something that appeals to huge swathes of people on a fundamental level – the pleasure of driving itself.

Secondly, we like to be fundamentally in control; while we rely on technology to make our lives easier, will the generations ahead demand that they are ultimately in control of a vehicle? That human instinct to be in charge is profoundly strong in all of us.

Best of Both Worlds? Perhaps then it is more likely that over the next 50 years, people will accept a compromise of both control and autonomy; where drivers can use automated tech to deal with traffic and the commute – but will have the ability to drive themselves when the mood or need takes them. In other words, there will still be a need for driver training and testing whatever the future holds.

It’s a sentiment echoed by Intelligent Instructor’s Paul Caddick: “It’s certainly not the end of driver training,” he explains. “Driverless cars will not take over immediately or completely. There will always be those who want to drive and be in control themselves even in the long term – and that means there will always be work for trainers.”

More importantly, the issue of self-driving vehicles is one that ADIs need to start discussing now to ensure that their sector is protected from the overreaching aspirations of Silicon Valley and its ilk, and to make the government aware why testing and training will remain essential in the years and decades to come however the technology develops. As Paul Caddock explains: “Instructors must make sure they are not sidelined but, instead, play a key role in delivering the modern driving experience as it continues to evolve.”